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Young leaders’ perspective on the consequences of Russia’s war and prospects of Ukraine’s green recovery for Eastern Europe
Viktoriya Ball and Valeriia Bondarieva
17.10.2024
Credit: AFP. A crowd of young Ukrainians during the 2013 Revolution of Dignity.
Outside of Ukraine, the only memory some people might have of talk around green recovery would have been the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a time when we saw what the world might look like if we rapidly tackled the detrimental impact of human activity on the environment on a global scale. For Ukrainian climate advocates and environmental specialists, green recovery is also about a conscious approach to building back better rather than returning to the way of life before catastrophe struck. But unlike the missed opportunities for sustainable transformation in global COVID recovery, Ukraine’s recovery is going to be a colossal effort in order to fulfil the goals of the European path the country has chosen when tens of thousands took to the streets during the 2014 Revolution of Dignity. This was the event that cemented the Ukrainians’ vision of the future for the global community: Ukraine is determined to join the European Union and fight for our common values—democracy, equality, freedom. And it was young people who were a leading force in the Revolution and have continued to be leading advocates for change in various social and cultural movements.
We sat down to speak to five young Ukrainians, for whom civic engagement is a fundamental part of their day to day to gauge where they stand on their country’s recovery. Among them, a 21-year-old advocate for youth diplomacy, a 24-year-old anarchist and student union activist, a 23-year-old local youth parliament member, a 24-year-old military aid volunteer, and a 23-year-old youth educator. Where do the priorities lie for the generation which has lived with war for the majority of their lives?
It shouldn’t be surprising that these young people don’t expect the victory to mark the beginning of a happy carefree life for Ukrainians. Of course, they will celebrate but it’s pragmatic to assume that things will only get tougher, as Ukraine will have to deal with a deep economic crisis, countless ruined towns and cities, deoccupied territories, demographic and social problems, the complex issue of reintegrating veterans into society while also adapting to their needs, among others. Recovery will take years, if not decades.
What is interesting, however, is that reconstruction as a topic is only gaining its popularity despite the fact that the process had already started even before the full-scale invasion. Many forums and panel discussions are taking place, and raising questions that will form the agenda for the recovery process. But it is easy to question what purpose they are serving beyond this. A youth diplomat points out that their result must be more practical and strategic, emphasising that they must be focused on developing the next steps and appropriate governance structures alongside. Still, Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024, held in Berlin, was described as ‘a peak of recovery talks’ by one of the respondents.
Credit: Ukraine Business News. President Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Scholz at Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024.
In conversation, these five young Ukrainians share the sentiment of ‘building back better’, which is now the common principle for experts working on reconstruction. Their visions of recovery agree that it must be socially-oriented and sustainable, led by experts.
However, besides experts, this process will require much labour force, which is another challenge for Ukraine to address. Russia’s full-scale invasion has forced millions of Ukrainians to flee their country, including many young people, resulting in a major brain drain. Some argue that it is not necessarily a bad thing, as young Ukrainians are now studying at reputable universities and gaining experience from foreign experts, which they can eventually bring back to help rebuild the country. This may be true, but nevertheless a huge challenge remains for Ukraine to incentivise these young experts to return. The Ministry of Youth and Sports of Ukraine is rumoured to be working on this already. However, the Ukrainian Prime Minister recently shared that there is even a concept for a separate Ministry of Return of Ukrainians, as it’s currently the work of multiple ministries for whom it’s not the priority. It’s also critical to acknowledge that Russia’s war has not only displaced millions but also killed tens of thousands—and sadly, there is no way of bringing these people back.
It's expected that the job market will grow substantially, driven by this outflow of experts on one hand, and the demand for technical jobs needed for reconstruction on the other. However, there are increasing concerns that the international support will be only decreasing, meaning that these workers might not receive competitive salaries—making it difficult to choose to come back from more well-off countries or not to emigrate. With many men at war, women are naturally stepping into these roles, but one interviewee says there’s still a need for informational campaigns to encourage women to do so and tackle the stereotypes that stand in their way.
Credit: Regional Women’s Congress of Ukraine. The summit took place in April 2024 in Poltava and focused on the role of women in reconstruction among other topics.
It will be the voice of civil society that will have the power to bring attention to the social dimension of green policies, like the benefit of the renewable transition for energy bills, or how inclusive and well-equipped the newer energy-efficient buildings will be for a nation living with a constant risk of military escalation. “Switching to renewable energy is essential”, says another student. “We need to make sure reconstruction has the least impact on the environment possible”. While young Ukrainians may understand to some extent the importance of a green approach to recovery, they are not aware of many projects or other avenues to get involved. As recovery talk becomes more mainstream, the Ukrainian government was part of launching the Vidnova:UA initiative to get young people on board through recovery-focused youth exchanges, but there is little focus on sustainability. There is potential to mobilise movements like Let’s Build Ukraine Together (“BUR”) in this area, a response to the 2014 invasion that organises trips to collectively rebuild or improve neighbourhoods affected by missile strikes.
Credit: Pavel Sepi/Rozviy Youth Climate Initiative. Rozviy activists organise an action against the greenwashing of Ukraine’s reconstruction at URC 2024 in Berlin.
There is also Rozviy, a youth climate organisation that was founded with the exact purpose of engaging young people in green recovery by advocating for their inclusion in decision-making. Their aim is to establish the “Youth for Green Recovery” Network, to unite youth councils, organisations and individuals passionate about making this vision a reality in their local communities.
What could Ukraine’s green recovery mean for the region?
Russia’s war in Ukraine has reflected upon the challenges not only faced on Ukrainian soil, but also abroad, particularly in the Eastern European region. Will Ukraine’s recovery have the same kind of domino effect on its neighbours? We posed this question to young experts across Ukraine’s land and sea borders, all united by the hope for their countries to join the EU.
Moldova: an equal partner in the green transformation?
Moldova is closely linked to Ukraine not just geographically, but also existentially. There are few areas where this is more apparent than in the energy sector. Just like Ukraine, it had previously been dependent on Russian gas and its energy supply came via Ukraine. The country felt the blow of the full scale invasion in its own way, also experiencing blackouts and as a result of this dependency, had to join the search for alternative energy sources. This meant they were able to decouple the territory on the right bank of the Dnister from Russian gas and look more towards renewables, now even more out of necessity.
This transition effort has for sure been much greater than just a national one. As Vladislav Kaim, a young energy expert puts it, “the invasion unleashed the power of looking for this kind of solution and actually knitting the bigger Eastern European and Balkan region together in ways that we haven't thought about before”. He understands that while future planning is not at the forefront of the current priorities for Eastern European countries, the national climate and energy plans being drawn up now are likely to serve as a blueprint for future strategies.
The war has forced Moldova to rethink more than just energy, as it’s also affected trade and transport, as an important transit country for Ukrainian exports, which can now only be transported by road and rail. This shift in focus to greener alternatives has the potential to effectively showcase to the region what can be achieved when there is an urgent imperative for a sustainable transformation in our unique context. Moldovan expertise will be increasingly valuable when it comes to the question of ongoing recovery and reconstruction planning. It is an opportunity for Moldova to show its leadership in innovation on a global scale, as it will be a strategically important location for Ukraine’s international partners in business and trade. As Kaim suggests, one could argue that if Ukraine’s recovery isn’t taken into account in the economic development of Moldova, and even that of the region, the reputation of Eastern Europe will be put at risk if it will mean the outcomes of this recovery process will not fulfil the international commitments being made now.
Credit: Elena Covalenco/AFP. Moldovan youth march through the capital Chisinau on Europe Day.
The Moldovan youth climate movement remains small, but it is possible the green transition will encourage a rise in opportunities for education and training in this crucial area. And just like for Ukraine, a green recovery and its cross-border impacts cannot be avoided because of EU integration. It is clear that for many in our countries, the transition to greener infrastructure is seen not as a present day process, but one that is essential for our common European future, away from the instability of dependence on Russia, one where Moldova and Ukraine are close partners. So for now, even if the green transition manifests itself more in policy change rather than on people’s doorstep, Moldova’s climate movement has a chance to show the benefits it will have for the lives of ordinary citizens.
As climate policy will be brought to the forefront more and more, the exchange between Ukrainians working on green recovery and their counterparts in Moldova will be of great benefit. “It's about showcasing small things that work”, notes Kaim as he emphasises the potential to lower people’s bills through energy efficiency measures that can be introduced during Ukraine’s reconstruction. He believes that young people, too, must be recognised as the innovators that they are or can become, both in enterprise and in policy development.
Georgia: holding on to Europe amidst political turmoil
Georgians are in a more dire situation, which has pushed climate issues down the priority list. The threat of Russia’s influence is ever-present through the hostile politics of the ruling party, Georgian Dream, whose support for Ukraine has been very limited while they refuse to properly implement sanctions on Russia. For Georgian oligarchs who wield significant political power, favouring Russia means huge economic benefit as they cling on to their companies’ presence in the terrorist state.
The kind of political and economic hold that Russia has on Georgia has hindered the development of the climate movement in their country, says Ana Mtchedlishvili, a young freelance journalist and activist. “It's also hindering a healthy collaboration of the region as a whole”, they point out, not just on a national level, but on the level of civil society. Especially considering the genocide in the regions of Abkhazia and bombings on Ossetia, Ana believes the wars in the region of the past two decades have robbed their generation of a sense of stability. There is little talk of the sort of post-war recovery that is going on in Ukraine even as Russia’s war rages on.
Credit: BBC News South Caucasus. Georgians protest against the controversial ‘Russian law’ in the streets of Tbilisi.
And no wonder, as a war that has left a fifth of their territory occupied in many Georgians’ living memory is hardly discussed even in school history lessons, meaning young people are left exploring their past and how it’s shaped present day Georgia on their own. This is perhaps why being an active part of civil society holds a lot of meaning for Georgian youth, who are often leading figures in the current resistance movement against the latest government measures that limit civic participation.
Besides the overwhelming public solidarity with Ukrainians following Russia’s 2022 invasion, Georgians have had ties to Ukraine predating this, as many Georgians had relatives who have immigrated to Ukraine, and vice versa. Both countries stand on the path of European integration. But although EU support has been present in Georgia for a longer period of time, it faces a political brick wall when it comes to the current party in power, which is threatening a withdrawal of European presence.
Still, young people in the Georgian climate movement continue taking advantage of European green initiatives and exchanges, which are often supported by the European Union. Mtchedlishvili, who has benefited from such exchanges with young professionals from Ukraine and Moldova among others in the region, remains optimistic about the possibility of a shift in the political climate towards a victory of the opposition in the upcoming October elections. They envision that Ukraine’s green recovery, while still largely in the conception stage or piloted in small projects, “will be a stepping stone for the green transition of the region”. There is hope for Georgia’s climate campaigners that in the post-election future, regional cooperation on the green transition may help rally people behind the benefits.
Belarus: planning for a green distant future in exile
Looking towards Belarus, there is a sense that the picture is more desperate. In 2020, the country witnessed its largest anti-government protests, erupted after President Lukashenko’s bid for the sixth term as a result of rigged presidential elections and followed by mass repressions, arrests and political trials. Many activists found themselves in exile, especially in neighbouring Ukraine and Poland. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has not only displaced people once again but also drawn Belarus into the war. Sanctions have been imposed, triggering an unprecedented economic shock and a severe downturn.
Since then, the Belarusian government has liquidated almost all environmental organisations in the country. Iryna Ponedelnik, Belarusian climate educator and communicator in exile, says the regime is doing everything it can to disconnect people from civic life. Moreover, Belarus's complicity in war has diverted an already limited pool of funding from Belarusian projects, making it hard to secure the resources needed for their advocacy work. No salaries, no experts, brain drain. Those working from exile cannot interact with their target audience. The country is losing its valuable experts as well as young people who alternatively could be working for the progress of their country.
Credit: Iryna Ponedelnik. The interviewed Belarusian activist at a climate summit.
This means that green principles, such as decarbonisation, equitable development and prioritising wellbeing through responsible nature stewardship are an integral part of social and economic transformation. The alliance works on policy drafts to have them ready for when the right time comes, while climate change is already affecting communities in Belarus, with record-breaking temperatures and serious impact on people’s health, harvest and water supply. Yet as long as the authoritarian regime, propped up by Russian influence that perpetuates violation of human rights and climate denialism, remains in power, Belarusian experts won't be able to freely propose measures and push for urgent action.
On the map, Belarus is right on the doorstep of the EU, which aims to make the European continent the first carbon neutral one. However, for Belarus, it will take a huge amount of time to overcome its political challenges, and so the prospects of joining the EU on this quest are bleak and distant. “International cooperation is key for green transformation”, notes Ponedelnik. Maybe it will become the bridge for Belarus to one day close the gaps between its counterparts from the rest of Eastern Europe.
“I hope we continue building and maintaining the cooperation between experts on national and transborder projects. We are really open to learning from Ukrainians”, shares Iryna, “We want to choose your way of lifestyle, of democracy, of government [...] The reality is that Ukrainian experts are setting a precedent on green recovery and their expertise and experience will be valuable for many countries at war, us included.”
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Undoubtedly, Russia’s war is the most pressing challenge for present day Eastern Europe and rightfully, the greatest effort is the one directed towards survival of the democratic nations of the region. Russia’s influence lingers much further beyond Ukraine, with a ‘parrot regime’ keeping hundreds of political prisoners in Belarus, widespread Russian propaganda in Moldova, and a pro-Russian repressive government in Georgia. Despite this, the climate and environmental movements see opportunity in this fight for survival. Ukraine will need the ingenuity and expertise of its neighbours for its communities to stay resilient in their resistance to occupation. But equally, it is in the interest of the changemakers of the region to support Ukraine to collectively restore environmental security through the geopolitical storm. Whether this will lead to success won’t just be up to the experts, but the region’s young leaders holding those closer to power to account.
Despite the numerous challenges, Belarusian civil society keeps resisting to the best of its ability. For example, the Green Network of Belarus has launched an alliance called Green Belarus. It is a group of Belarusian experts and organisations working on a vision of what Belarus might look like after the fall of Lukashenko’s regime. Interestingly, this vision resonates with the idea of Ukraine’s green recovery. Environment and climate are perceived not as a separate sector but a cross-cutting element of reconstruction.
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